New blog!

Hey everyone,

I've decided to migrate over to Wordpress for the upcoming 2010-11 NCAA season. Here is the link: http://thebracketman.wordpress.com/

Be sure to follow me on Twitter as well: http://twitter.com/The_Bracket_Man

Thanks!

Very early Big Ten Preview (2010-11):

Okay, here's the format: I have each team listed in a projected B10 finish (regular season, not tournament). I listed each player the school has lost (graduate, transfer, or NBA draft), percent of scoring the school is losing, signed recruits plus their ESPN grade for the 2010 class, and a +/- number on how many spots the team can realistically fluctuate.

-Recruits and their grade is as of today, May 9th per ESPN.

-Draft status is based on Rival's list: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1069126

-Transfers are based on Goodman's first transfer list: http://community.foxsports.com/goodmanonfox/blog/2010/04/14/first_edition_of_end-of-year_transfer_list

I tried to rank the teams mostly off of numbers and less personal feelings; however I did take into account injuries (Hummel, Coble), Senior classes (PSU), new coaching, etc.

Big 10 Preview-

==================

purdue:

grant

kramer

wohlford

20%

92, 92, 91, 90

+/- 1

=====================

michigan state:

crandell

dahlman

morgan

17%

95, 95, 94, 90

+/- 1

=======================

ohio state:

hill

madsen

peters

simmons

titus

turner

42%

98, 96, 94, 94, 92, 91

+/- 2

========================

illinois:

chisholm

keller

simpson

8%

95, 95, 94

+/- 1

===================

wisconsin:

bohannon

hughes

40%

93, 90, 89, 89

+/- 2

==================

northwestern:

nash

ryan

steger

rowley

16%

88

+/- 1

=================

Penn State:

babb

edwards

highberger

ott

28%

93, 86

+/- 2

==================

minnesota:

bostick

johnson

westbrook

carter

44%

92, 89, 87, 87

+/- 2

=================

indiana:

dumes

gambles

jobe

11%

90, 89

+/- 2

==================

Michigan:

gibson

sims

harris

60%

94, 93, 88

+/- 2

==================

Iowa:

bawinkel

fuller

lickliter

24%

89, 89, 87

+/- 0

Summary: Purdue will return Hummel, Johnson and Moore. Arguable one of the best 3 headed monsters in the country. Purdue will be ranked Top 5 pre-season. MSU and OSU have outside shots at taking the #1 spot in the B10, but its unlikely. OSU loses Turner but they have a stellar recruiting class. They can finish 2nd or drop to 4th. Michigan State really only loses Morgan from a Final 4 team. They will finish 2nd or 3rd.

Illinois and Wisconsin are fighting for 4th and 5th. Illinois loses virtually nothing, while a better Wisconsin team loses Hughes and Bohannon. Illinois will likely finish ahead of Wisconsin.

Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota are fighting for the next three spots. Northwestern and Penn State will fight for the 6th and 7th spots. Northwestern returns most of the team plus Coble. Penn State lost 2 players to transfer but has a heavy senior class. Minnesota lost almost half of their scoring, they will probably finish 7th or 8th.

Indiana, Michigan and Iowa will shape up the bottom of the B10. Michigan loses a lot of talent from a mediocre-at-best 2009-10 squad. Iowa has a new coach in McCaffrey. Indiana looks the be the most stable of these three teams. I don't think Iowa has enough talent this season to fight its way out of the basement. Indiana is a tough team that will probably finish ahead of these other two cellar dwellers.

================

If I missed any players that aren't actually leaving (Coble was listed as a Senior on ESPN but he got a medical year) or missed a player or two that is leaving, please let me know. But for the most part, the scoring % numbers are pretty accurate (within a percentage point or two).

Bubble Teams Revisited

Just a quick review of Selection Sunday Bubble teams and how they did in their respective post season tournaments.

======NCAA Teams===================

Missouri - 2nd Round loss to WVU*

Georgia Tech -2nd round loss to OSU*
UTEP - Destroyed by Butler in second half
Minnesota - Loss to Xavier
Utah State - Dominated by Texas A&M
Louisville - Loss to California
Florida - 2OT loss to BYU
======NIT Teams===============
Arizona State - Lost to Jacksonville in first round
Ole Miss - Loss in Final 4 to Dayton
Illinois - won @Stony Brook in first round, win against Kent State loss to Dayton
Miss State - Beat Jackson State and lost to UNC
Rhode Island - Loss in Final 4 to UNC
Virginia Tech - beat Quinnipiac, Beat UConn, loss to Rhodie
Memphis - Beat St Johns, second round loss to Ole Miss
Dayton - Win NIT
Seton Hall - blown out by TTU

Almost every single bubble team performed rather poorly in their tournaments. The exceptions were Ole Miss, Rhode Island and Dayton who all did well in the NIT (Final 4+). GT and Missouri are listed, but they weren't truly bubble teams. I didn't list California because apparently the committee didn't think they were a bubble team.

Hindsight is always 20/20, however I still don't think the 3 green NIT teams deserved to be in the tournament BASED ON THEIR RESUMES. Rhode Island was a stretch at best, and Dayton + Ole Miss were definitely out, IMO.

Overall, the bubble was constantly described as the weakest in a long time, and it looks like post season play proved that in almost every case. Don't forget: bubble teams do play significantly higher seeds in the NCAA tournament... but still.

I'll post back after the Final 4 for a preview towards next year, and we'll take it from there!

In the mean time, I'll see ya on Pennstatehoops.com or Piratecrew.com (once the ban is lifted on new members..)!

Post Selection Show

Looks like I just missed a team somewhere in the lock section, or I did my math wrong... either way I only got one slot in the field wrong. 64/65. Not bad for season one.

Florida surprisingly got a 10 seed, I didn't even think they were in. They took the spot of Illinois (not the exact seed, but I had Illinois in over them).

My placement of Utah State, UTEP, Louisville, GT, Wake Forest, Minnesota and Missouri were all rather accurate. I did not think CAL was going to be such a high seed. Underestimated the selection committee's liking of them.

Final NCAA Field Projection

Punched a ticket (30): Cornell, Old Dom, St Mary's, ETSU, Winthrop, Siena, Northern Iowa, Murray State, Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Robert Morris, Montana, Lehigh, Houston, Vermont, Morgan State, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Kansas, San Diego State, Washington, UC Santa Barbara, WVU, New Mexico State, Arkansas PB, Duke, Temple, Kentucky, OSU

Thats 30 bids gone right there, so there are 35 left.

Locks (26):

Villanova, Pitt, Nova, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Gonzaga

9 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:

------->98% Chance of getting in----------

1-Missouri (22-10 (10-7), RPI #44, SOS #47)

2-Louisville (20-12 (11-7), RPI #37, SOS #7)

3-Georgia Tech (22-11 (7-9), RPI #33, SOS #17)

------->50% Chance of getting in-----------

4-Utah State (27-6 (14-2), RPI #31, SOS #100)

5-Minnesota (21-13 (9-9), RPI #60, SOS #44)

6-Illinois (19-13 (10-8), RPI #74, SOS #35)

7-California (23-10 (15-6), RPI #20, SOS #14)

8-UTEP (26-7) (15-1), RPI #36, SOS #111)

9-??

-------------------------------------------

Virginia Tech (23-8 (10-6), RPI #59, SOS #128)

Florida (21-12 (9-7), RPI #56, SOS #33)

-------<5%>

Seton Hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #61, SOS #31)

Rhode Island (23-9 (9-7), RPI #40, SOS #71)

Miss State (23-10 (9-7), RPI #69, SOS #103)

-------<1%>

Ole Miss (21-10 (9-7), RPI #54, SOS #97)

Dayton (19-12 (8-8), RPI #55, SOS #32)

Memphis (23-9 (13-3), RPI #53, SOS #85)

Arizona State (22-10 (12-6), RPI #63, SOS #79)

I'll post back after the Selection Show!

Bubble Team Analysis

Just a quick overview of the bubble teams in contention. Pending Miss State and Minnesota games today. The teams are listed in order.

Missouri-

For: Good OOC wins over Old Dom & Illinois. 4-7 vs Top 50.

Against:3 Sup 100 RPI Losses. Bad down the stretch.

Louisville-

For:Beat #1 seeded Syracuse twice. Great SOS and good RPI.

Against: Only 3-7 vs Top 50. Bad loss to Western Carolina.

Georgia Tech-

For: 5-6 vs Top 50. Good SOS and RPI.

Against: Only 10-9 in conference. 2 sub 100 losses.

Utah State-

For: 2-1 vs Top 50. OOC wins over BYU and Wichita State. Good RPI.

Against: Two sub 100 losses. Bad SOS.

UTEP-

For: 15-1 in conference. 26 wins. Good RPI.

Against: No Top 25 wins, both Top wins (2-1) are against UAB. Bad SOS. 2 sub 100 losses.

Illinois-

For: 5 Top 50 wins. 2 great OOC wins. Good SOS.

Against: 14 losses. Bad RPI. 4 sub 100 losses.

California-

For: Great RPI and SOS.

Against: 1-6 vs Top 50, no Top 25 wins. 6 losses in a bad Pac-10.

--------BUBBLE POPS------------------------

Virginia Tech-

For: 3-4 vs Top 50.

Against: Bad SOS, OK RPI. No Top 25 wins.

Florida-

For: Good OOC wins (FSU,MSU). Good SOS.

Against: 2 bad losses (1 sub 200). Finished weak. 3-8 vs Top 50.

Minnesota-

For: 5-6 vs Top 50 (3 Top 25 wins). Butler OOC win. Finished strong.

Against: 4 Sub 100 losses (1 sub 200). 3-7 in road games.

Seton Hall-

For: No bad losses. Good SOS. 4 Top 50 wins. OOC @Cornell.

Against: OK RPI.

Rhode Island-

For: Good RPI. OOC win over Oklahoma State.

Against: 2 Sub 100 losses, bad SOS. No Top 25 wins, 1-5 vs Top 50.

Miss State-

For: Old Dom OOC win. Finishing strong.

Against: 5 Sub 100 losses. Only 1 Top 50 SEC win. Bad SOS.

Selection Sunday Ahead!

A huge slate of bubble games just went down on Saturday. New Mexico State took the auto-bid out of the WAC from Utah State. Houston upset UTEP in C-USA and a lot more.

Only two out of the 4 games tomorrow really matter for bubble hopes:

Miss State vs Kentucky (SEC Championship, 1PM ABC) - Miss State is likely out with a loss. Must win for them to steal a bid.

Minnesota vs Ohio State (B10 Championship, 330PM CBS) - Minnesota is right around the bubble. A win would lock a bid up for them.

Both games could steal bids from other bubble teams such as Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois and UTEP. Should be very interesting!

Within a short period of time after the Minnesota game I will post my final projections. Stay tuned!