New blog!

Hey everyone,

I've decided to migrate over to Wordpress for the upcoming 2010-11 NCAA season. Here is the link: http://thebracketman.wordpress.com/

Be sure to follow me on Twitter as well: http://twitter.com/The_Bracket_Man

Thanks!

Very early Big Ten Preview (2010-11):

Okay, here's the format: I have each team listed in a projected B10 finish (regular season, not tournament). I listed each player the school has lost (graduate, transfer, or NBA draft), percent of scoring the school is losing, signed recruits plus their ESPN grade for the 2010 class, and a +/- number on how many spots the team can realistically fluctuate.

-Recruits and their grade is as of today, May 9th per ESPN.

-Draft status is based on Rival's list: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1069126

-Transfers are based on Goodman's first transfer list: http://community.foxsports.com/goodmanonfox/blog/2010/04/14/first_edition_of_end-of-year_transfer_list

I tried to rank the teams mostly off of numbers and less personal feelings; however I did take into account injuries (Hummel, Coble), Senior classes (PSU), new coaching, etc.

Big 10 Preview-

==================

purdue:

grant

kramer

wohlford

20%

92, 92, 91, 90

+/- 1

=====================

michigan state:

crandell

dahlman

morgan

17%

95, 95, 94, 90

+/- 1

=======================

ohio state:

hill

madsen

peters

simmons

titus

turner

42%

98, 96, 94, 94, 92, 91

+/- 2

========================

illinois:

chisholm

keller

simpson

8%

95, 95, 94

+/- 1

===================

wisconsin:

bohannon

hughes

40%

93, 90, 89, 89

+/- 2

==================

northwestern:

nash

ryan

steger

rowley

16%

88

+/- 1

=================

Penn State:

babb

edwards

highberger

ott

28%

93, 86

+/- 2

==================

minnesota:

bostick

johnson

westbrook

carter

44%

92, 89, 87, 87

+/- 2

=================

indiana:

dumes

gambles

jobe

11%

90, 89

+/- 2

==================

Michigan:

gibson

sims

harris

60%

94, 93, 88

+/- 2

==================

Iowa:

bawinkel

fuller

lickliter

24%

89, 89, 87

+/- 0

Summary: Purdue will return Hummel, Johnson and Moore. Arguable one of the best 3 headed monsters in the country. Purdue will be ranked Top 5 pre-season. MSU and OSU have outside shots at taking the #1 spot in the B10, but its unlikely. OSU loses Turner but they have a stellar recruiting class. They can finish 2nd or drop to 4th. Michigan State really only loses Morgan from a Final 4 team. They will finish 2nd or 3rd.

Illinois and Wisconsin are fighting for 4th and 5th. Illinois loses virtually nothing, while a better Wisconsin team loses Hughes and Bohannon. Illinois will likely finish ahead of Wisconsin.

Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota are fighting for the next three spots. Northwestern and Penn State will fight for the 6th and 7th spots. Northwestern returns most of the team plus Coble. Penn State lost 2 players to transfer but has a heavy senior class. Minnesota lost almost half of their scoring, they will probably finish 7th or 8th.

Indiana, Michigan and Iowa will shape up the bottom of the B10. Michigan loses a lot of talent from a mediocre-at-best 2009-10 squad. Iowa has a new coach in McCaffrey. Indiana looks the be the most stable of these three teams. I don't think Iowa has enough talent this season to fight its way out of the basement. Indiana is a tough team that will probably finish ahead of these other two cellar dwellers.

================

If I missed any players that aren't actually leaving (Coble was listed as a Senior on ESPN but he got a medical year) or missed a player or two that is leaving, please let me know. But for the most part, the scoring % numbers are pretty accurate (within a percentage point or two).

Bubble Teams Revisited

Just a quick review of Selection Sunday Bubble teams and how they did in their respective post season tournaments.

======NCAA Teams===================

Missouri - 2nd Round loss to WVU*

Georgia Tech -2nd round loss to OSU*
UTEP - Destroyed by Butler in second half
Minnesota - Loss to Xavier
Utah State - Dominated by Texas A&M
Louisville - Loss to California
Florida - 2OT loss to BYU
======NIT Teams===============
Arizona State - Lost to Jacksonville in first round
Ole Miss - Loss in Final 4 to Dayton
Illinois - won @Stony Brook in first round, win against Kent State loss to Dayton
Miss State - Beat Jackson State and lost to UNC
Rhode Island - Loss in Final 4 to UNC
Virginia Tech - beat Quinnipiac, Beat UConn, loss to Rhodie
Memphis - Beat St Johns, second round loss to Ole Miss
Dayton - Win NIT
Seton Hall - blown out by TTU

Almost every single bubble team performed rather poorly in their tournaments. The exceptions were Ole Miss, Rhode Island and Dayton who all did well in the NIT (Final 4+). GT and Missouri are listed, but they weren't truly bubble teams. I didn't list California because apparently the committee didn't think they were a bubble team.

Hindsight is always 20/20, however I still don't think the 3 green NIT teams deserved to be in the tournament BASED ON THEIR RESUMES. Rhode Island was a stretch at best, and Dayton + Ole Miss were definitely out, IMO.

Overall, the bubble was constantly described as the weakest in a long time, and it looks like post season play proved that in almost every case. Don't forget: bubble teams do play significantly higher seeds in the NCAA tournament... but still.

I'll post back after the Final 4 for a preview towards next year, and we'll take it from there!

In the mean time, I'll see ya on Pennstatehoops.com or Piratecrew.com (once the ban is lifted on new members..)!

Post Selection Show

Looks like I just missed a team somewhere in the lock section, or I did my math wrong... either way I only got one slot in the field wrong. 64/65. Not bad for season one.

Florida surprisingly got a 10 seed, I didn't even think they were in. They took the spot of Illinois (not the exact seed, but I had Illinois in over them).

My placement of Utah State, UTEP, Louisville, GT, Wake Forest, Minnesota and Missouri were all rather accurate. I did not think CAL was going to be such a high seed. Underestimated the selection committee's liking of them.

Final NCAA Field Projection

Punched a ticket (30): Cornell, Old Dom, St Mary's, ETSU, Winthrop, Siena, Northern Iowa, Murray State, Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Robert Morris, Montana, Lehigh, Houston, Vermont, Morgan State, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Kansas, San Diego State, Washington, UC Santa Barbara, WVU, New Mexico State, Arkansas PB, Duke, Temple, Kentucky, OSU

Thats 30 bids gone right there, so there are 35 left.

Locks (26):

Villanova, Pitt, Nova, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Gonzaga

9 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:

------->98% Chance of getting in----------

1-Missouri (22-10 (10-7), RPI #44, SOS #47)

2-Louisville (20-12 (11-7), RPI #37, SOS #7)

3-Georgia Tech (22-11 (7-9), RPI #33, SOS #17)

------->50% Chance of getting in-----------

4-Utah State (27-6 (14-2), RPI #31, SOS #100)

5-Minnesota (21-13 (9-9), RPI #60, SOS #44)

6-Illinois (19-13 (10-8), RPI #74, SOS #35)

7-California (23-10 (15-6), RPI #20, SOS #14)

8-UTEP (26-7) (15-1), RPI #36, SOS #111)

9-??

-------------------------------------------

Virginia Tech (23-8 (10-6), RPI #59, SOS #128)

Florida (21-12 (9-7), RPI #56, SOS #33)

-------<5%>

Seton Hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #61, SOS #31)

Rhode Island (23-9 (9-7), RPI #40, SOS #71)

Miss State (23-10 (9-7), RPI #69, SOS #103)

-------<1%>

Ole Miss (21-10 (9-7), RPI #54, SOS #97)

Dayton (19-12 (8-8), RPI #55, SOS #32)

Memphis (23-9 (13-3), RPI #53, SOS #85)

Arizona State (22-10 (12-6), RPI #63, SOS #79)

I'll post back after the Selection Show!

Bubble Team Analysis

Just a quick overview of the bubble teams in contention. Pending Miss State and Minnesota games today. The teams are listed in order.

Missouri-

For: Good OOC wins over Old Dom & Illinois. 4-7 vs Top 50.

Against:3 Sup 100 RPI Losses. Bad down the stretch.

Louisville-

For:Beat #1 seeded Syracuse twice. Great SOS and good RPI.

Against: Only 3-7 vs Top 50. Bad loss to Western Carolina.

Georgia Tech-

For: 5-6 vs Top 50. Good SOS and RPI.

Against: Only 10-9 in conference. 2 sub 100 losses.

Utah State-

For: 2-1 vs Top 50. OOC wins over BYU and Wichita State. Good RPI.

Against: Two sub 100 losses. Bad SOS.

UTEP-

For: 15-1 in conference. 26 wins. Good RPI.

Against: No Top 25 wins, both Top wins (2-1) are against UAB. Bad SOS. 2 sub 100 losses.

Illinois-

For: 5 Top 50 wins. 2 great OOC wins. Good SOS.

Against: 14 losses. Bad RPI. 4 sub 100 losses.

California-

For: Great RPI and SOS.

Against: 1-6 vs Top 50, no Top 25 wins. 6 losses in a bad Pac-10.

--------BUBBLE POPS------------------------

Virginia Tech-

For: 3-4 vs Top 50.

Against: Bad SOS, OK RPI. No Top 25 wins.

Florida-

For: Good OOC wins (FSU,MSU). Good SOS.

Against: 2 bad losses (1 sub 200). Finished weak. 3-8 vs Top 50.

Minnesota-

For: 5-6 vs Top 50 (3 Top 25 wins). Butler OOC win. Finished strong.

Against: 4 Sub 100 losses (1 sub 200). 3-7 in road games.

Seton Hall-

For: No bad losses. Good SOS. 4 Top 50 wins. OOC @Cornell.

Against: OK RPI.

Rhode Island-

For: Good RPI. OOC win over Oklahoma State.

Against: 2 Sub 100 losses, bad SOS. No Top 25 wins, 1-5 vs Top 50.

Miss State-

For: Old Dom OOC win. Finishing strong.

Against: 5 Sub 100 losses. Only 1 Top 50 SEC win. Bad SOS.

Selection Sunday Ahead!

A huge slate of bubble games just went down on Saturday. New Mexico State took the auto-bid out of the WAC from Utah State. Houston upset UTEP in C-USA and a lot more.

Only two out of the 4 games tomorrow really matter for bubble hopes:

Miss State vs Kentucky (SEC Championship, 1PM ABC) - Miss State is likely out with a loss. Must win for them to steal a bid.

Minnesota vs Ohio State (B10 Championship, 330PM CBS) - Minnesota is right around the bubble. A win would lock a bid up for them.

Both games could steal bids from other bubble teams such as Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois and UTEP. Should be very interesting!

Within a short period of time after the Minnesota game I will post my final projections. Stay tuned!

Bubble Through Friday & Saturday Preview

Sorry for the late post! This update is through games as of 3PM ET. Houston stole a bid by beating UTEP. I put UTEP in the lock section. San Diego State moved up after a huge win over New Mexico last night. UNLV moved up to a lock with a win over BYU. UNLV and San Diego State will meet for the MWC championship.

7 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:

1-Louisville (20-12 (11-7), RPI #39, SOS #6)

2-Georgia Tech (21-11 (7-9), RPI #35, SOS #16)

3-San Diego State (24-8 (11-5), RPI #24, SOS #57)

Bubble IN:

4-Virginia Tech (23-8 (10-6), RPI #56, SOS #132)

5-Florida (21-12 (9-7), RPI #54, SOS #33)

6-Illinois (19-13 (10-8), RPI #69, SOS #49)

7-Washington (23-9 (11-7), RPI #46, SOS #69)

---------------------

Rhode Island (22-8 (9-7), RPI #38, SOS #88)

Seton Hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #60, SOS #32)

Minnesota (20-12 (9-9), RPI #68, SOS #39)*

Ole Miss (21-10 (9-7), RPI #59, SOS #64)

Dayton (19-12 (8-8), RPI #53, SOS #31)

Memphis (23-9 (13-3), RPI #52, SOS #84)

UAB (23-7 (11-5), RPI #45, SOS #99)

Arizona State (22-10 (12-6), RPI #62, SOS #80)

Miss State (22-10 (9-7), RPI #63, SOS #106)

South Florida (20-12 (9-9), RPI #65, SOS #77)

Saturday's games:

Illinois vs Ohio State - In progress. Illinois is holding a small lead. A win would guarantee them a lock.

Rhode Island vs Temple - Rhode Island would probably lock up a bid with a loss. However they are down big.

Minnesota vs Purdue - Minnesota probably needs another win to get in.

Vanderbilt vs Miss State - Miss State is done with a loss.

NCState vs Georgia Tech - Interesting if NCState were to win. Especially since Miami is beating Duke.

Washington vs California - Washington is probably in, even if they lose.

Utah State vs New Mexico State - Bubble teams want Utah State to win the WAC here.

Bubble Through Thursday & Friday Preview

9 Bids left. I switched Marquette and Louisville for lock positions. Marquette locked a bid up with their win over Villanova. Louisville is still 2-6 vs the Top 50 with some bad losses. Notre Dame also locked up a bid with a win over Pittsburgh.

Watch Your Back Region:

1-Louisville (20-12 (11-7), RPI #39, SOS #5)

2-UNLV (24-7 (12-5), RPI #50, SOS #110)

3-Georgia Tech (20-11 (7-9), RPI #40, SOS #20)

Bubble IN:

4-Virginia Tech (23-7 (10-6), RPI #50, SOS #128)

5-Florida (21-11 (9-7), RPI #51, SOS #32)

6-San Diego State (23-8 (11-5), RPI #32, SOS #75)

7-Illinois (18-13 (10-8), RPI #73, SOS #49)

8-Washington (22-9 (11-7), RPI #49, SOS #64)

9-Ole Miss (21-9 (9-7), RPI #57, SOS #69)

---------------------

Rhode Island (21-8 (9-7), RPI #39, SOS #79)

Seton Hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #58, SOS #30)

Dayton (19-11 (8-8), RPI #51, SOS #33)

Memphis (23-9 (13-3), RPI #55, SOS #84)

Minnesota (19-12 (9-9), RPI #74, SOS #39)

UAB (23-7 (11-5), RPI #40, SOS #89)

Arizona State (22-10 (12-6), RPI #61, SOS #78)

Miss State (21-10 (9-7), RPI #68, SOS #103)

South Florida (20-12 (9-9), RPI #65, SOS #77)

Dropped Out:

Connecticut (17-15 (7-11), RPI #54, SOS #3)

Friday's Games:

San Diego State vs New Mexico - San Diego State can drastically help their chances with a win.

Minnesota vs Michigan State - Minnesota needs a win here to have a realistic chance.

Tennessee vs Ole Miss - Would be a huge win for Ole Miss.

Illinois vs Wisconsin - Do or die for Illinois. Can't see them in with a loss.

Georgia Tech vs Maryland - GT helped their case with a win in the first round. A win here moves them to lock.

Miami vs Virginia Tech - Miami is playing well, VT can't afford a loss.

Rhode Island vs St Louis - St Louis has no shot with a loss, Rhode Island also needs a win badly.

Dayton vs Xavier - Dayton needs a win.

Florida vs Miss State - Big bubble game in the SEC. Miss State stays alive with a win, Florida needs a win as well.

Bubble Through Wednesday & Thursday Preview

10 Bids left. RPIs & SOS aren't including 3/10 games (will update tomorrow).

Watch Your Back Region:

1-UNLV (23-7 (11-5), RPI #47, SOS #118)

2-Marquette (20-10 (11-7), RPI #58, SOS #52)*

3-Notre Dame (22-10 (10-8), RPI #57, SOS #58)

Bubble IN:

4-Georgia Tech (19-11 (7-9), RPI #44, SOS #18)

5-Virginia Tech (23-7 (10-6), RPI #50, SOS #128)

6-Florida (20-11 (9-7), RPI #56, SOS #46)

7-San Diego State (22-8 (11-5), RPI #33, SOS #72)

8-Memphis (23-8 (13-3), RPI #46, SOS #63)

9-Illinois (18-13 (10-8), RPI #73, SOS #49)

10-Washington (21-9 (11-7), RPI #50, SOS #67)

---------------------

Ole Miss (21-9 (9-7), RPI #55, SOS #85)

Rhode Island (21-8 (9-7), RPI #39, SOS #79)

Arizona State (22-9 (12-6), RPI #52, SOS #81)

Dayton (19-11 (8-8), RPI #51, SOS #33)

Seton hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #53, SOS #28)

UAB (23-7 (11-5), RPI #40, SOS #89)

Minnesota (18-12 (9-9), RPI #75, SOS #39)

Dropped Out:

Miss State (21-10 (9-6), RPI #68, SOS #106)

South Florida (20-12 (9-9), RPI #65, SOS #77)

Connecticut (17-15 (7-11), RPI #54, SOS #3)

Thursday's Games - All bold teams are in must win situations:

Penn State vs Minnesota - Minnesota is looking for the 3 game sweep of PSU. Must win.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh - Notre Dame is looking to lock up a bid.

Memphis vs Houston

Utah State vs Boise State

UAB vs Southern Miss

San Diego State vs Colorado State

UNC vs Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech would really test the bubble with a loss.

Florida vs Auburn

Oregon State vs Washington

Arizona State vs Stanford

Monday & Tuesday Recap... Wednesday Preview

Old Dominion satisfied bubble team fans by winning their conference, but St Mary's on the other hand might have disappointed some. They didn't "steal" a bid, in the sense that they were clearly OUT, but they made sure they wouldn't be left out this year. I had Mary's IN before the game by a few teams so it wasn't TOO devastating for bubble teams.

Every bubble team except UConn cleaned up on Tuesday so a new bubble update isn't really necessary yet. Seton hall was up by 29 early in the second half against Providence and nearly lost... the Cardiac Kids!

Wednesday:

South Florida vs Georgetown (12PM ESPN) - First game of the BET on Wednesday. South Florida is looking to beat the Hoyas again and get closer to the bubble. They would probably need another win after this, though.

St Johns vs Marquette (2PM ESPN) - Not really a bubble game for Marquette unless they lose very badly.

Seton Hall vs Notre Dame (7PM ESPN) - A huge bubble game, more-so for Seton Hall. ND is on the better side of the bubble and Seton Hall could be in with a win. Seton Hall won in Newark the only time these two teams faced this season.

I'll be updating the bubble picture and games to watch daily from here on out... Stay tuned!

Bubble Games to Watch (3/8-3/9)

Monday has the potential of two teams (both the Marys) to steal bids from bubble teams. Tuesday has a bunch of elimination games for bubble teams. The bubble team you should root against will be in bold. Wright State is playing Butler for the Horizon League title as well, you should root for Butler so that Wright State doesn't steal a bid like they did a few seasons ago.

Monday:

St Mary's vs #14 Gonzaga (930PM ESPN) - Bubble team fans should obviously root for Gonzaga. St Mary's is a pure bubble team with a loss and Gonzaga is a lock with a loss.

William & Mary vs Old Dominion (7PM ESPN) - Root for Old Dominion if you're a fan of a team on the bubble.. they are probably a lock if they lose.

Tuesday:

Depaul vs South Florida (Noon ESPN2)

SJU vs UConn (2PM ESPN2)

Providence vs Seton Hall (7PM ESPNU)

St Joes vs Rhode Island (7PM)

George Washington vs Dayton (7PM)

Wright State vs Butler (9PM ESPN)

My bubble update as well as games to watch will be updated Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #7

Louisville earned itself an NCAA bid with a win over #1 Cuse in the final game at Freedom Hall. Wake Forest also locked up a bid. All of the Auto-Bids that are locked up and not just current league leaders will be in bold. (So far there are 5).

Rhode Island and UConn dropped out of my field of 65 and were replaced by Memphis and Washington.

Auto-bids, non 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 13 Bids: A10-Temple, ACC-Duke, B12-Kansas, BE-Syracuse, B10-OSU, CAA-Old Dom, CUSA-UTEP, Horizon-Butler, MVC-Northern Iowa, MWC-New Mexico, P10-California, SEC-Kentucky, WCC-Gonzaga

Auto-bids, 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 18 bids: America East (Vermont); Atlantic Sun (ETSU); Big Sky (Weber State); Big South (Winthrop); Big West (UC Santa Barbara); Ivy (Cornell); MAC (Kent State); MAAC (Siena); MEAC (Morgan State); Northeast (Robert Morris); Ohio Valley (Murray State); Patriot (Lehigh); Southern (Charleston); Southland (Sam Houston State); Summit (Oakland); Sun Belt (North Texas); SWAC (Jackson State); WAC (Utah State)

Thats 31 bids gone right there, so there are 34 left.

Locks (20):

Villanova, WVU, Pitt, Georgetown,Louisville, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor,Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest

11 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:

1-UNLV (23-7 (11-5), RPI #47, SOS #118)

2-Marquette (20-10 (11-7), RPI #58, SOS #52)

Bubble IN:

3-Georgia Tech (19-11 (7-9), RPI #44, SOS #18)

4-Notre Dame (21-10 (10-8), RPI #57, SOS #58)

5-Virginia Tech (23-7 (10-6), RPI #50, SOS #128)

6-Florida (20-11 (9-7), RPI #56, SOS #46)

7-San Diego State (22-8 (11-5), RPI #33, SOS #72)

8-St. Mary's (25-5 (11-3), RPI #45, SOS #145)

9-Memphis (23-8 (13-3), RPI #46, SOS #63)

10-Illinois (18-13 (10-8), RPI #73, SOS #49)

11-Washington (21-9 (11-7), RPI #50, SOS #67)

---------------------

Ole Miss (21-9 (9-7), RPI #55, SOS #85)

Rhode Island (21-8 (9-7), RPI #39, SOS #79)

Seton Hall (18-11 (9-9), RPI #53, SOS #28)

Arizona State (22-9 (12-6), RPI #52, SOS #81)

Dayton (19-11 (8-8), RPI #51, SOS #33)

Connecticut (17-14 (7-11), RPI #54, SOS #3)

UAB (23-7 (11-5), RPI #40, SOS #89)

South Florida (19-11 (9-9), RPI #65, SOS #77)

Minnesota (18-12 (9-9), RPI #75, SOS #39)

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati - Drop off the bubble with a blowout loss against Gtown.

Miss State - Loss to Tennessee. Need to make the finals to be on the fence.

New team(s):

South Florida

Weekend Preview

Mid-major teams for bubble teams to follow:

Butler - LOCK even if they lose.

Northern Iowa - Relatively safe if they lose. Beat Drake in their first game.

Gonzaga/St Mary's - Gonzaga is a lock if they lose, St Mary's is likely OUT if they do (depending on opponent).

Old Dominion - Similar case to Northern Iowa.

Saturday:

Seton Hall @ Providence - Must win game for Seton Hall.

#1 Syracuse @ Louisville - Louisville can lock up a bid with a win, a loss and they still have to sweat it out.

#13 Tennessee @ Miss State - Miss State is done with a loss.

Cincinnati @ #20 Georgetown - Cincinnati is done with a loss.

UAB @ #21 UTEP - UAB has been relatively safe all year. Another loss and they are in serious trouble.

Tulsa @ Memphis - Memphis needs more wins.

UConn @ USF - UConn has an unusual resume. They can't afford more losses.

Notre Dame @ Marquette - Huge BE bubble game. Can ND keep playing out of their minds?

Ole Miss @ Arkansas - Must win for Ole Miss.

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech - Big bubble game in the ACC. Both teams need wins.

Rhode Island @ UMass - Must win for Rhodie.

Wyoming @ UNLV - Ditto for UNLV.

UCLA @ Arizona State - Arizona State can't afford any more losses, they are on thin ice.

California @ Stanford - If CAL was to lose in the P10 tournament, they need as many wins as they can get.

St Louis @ Dayton - St Louis was a nice story for awhile, but I doubt Dayton cares. They are in murky water right now.

Washington @ Oregon State - Must win for the Huskies.

San Diego State @ Air Force - Ditto for San Diego State.

Sunday:

Florida @ #3 Kentucky - Huge game for Florida. They are on a small slide, a win @Kentucky would do wonders.

#17 Wisconsin @ Illinois - Illinois really likes to test the bubble. They can't keep racking up losses.

Clemson @ Wake Forest - Clemson is pretty much a lock, something Wake Forest once was. They are in a huge slump.

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #6

Clemson and Florida State from the ACC have been moved to the LOCK section. Charlotte dropped out of the running with yet another loss, this time to Rhode Island. Notre Dame and Rhode Island are now IN my field. They took the spots of UAB (loss to Memphis) and Ole Miss (bumped out).

I had forgotten to update my 1 big league pool... Old Dominion and Utah State were moved out of that section since they are both right around the bubble if they don't win their conference tournaments.

Auto-bids, non 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 14 Bids: A10-Temple, ACC-Duke, B12-Kansas, BE-Syracuse, B10-MSU, CAA-Old Dom, CUSA-UTEP, Horizon-Butler,MVC-Northern Iowa, MWC-New Mexico, P10-California, SEC-Kentucky, WAC- Utah State, WCC-Gonzaga

Auto-bids, 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 17 bids: America East (Stony Brook); Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville); Big Sky (Weber State); Big South (Coastal Carolina); Big West (UC Santa Barbara); Ivy (Cornell); MAC (Kent State); MAAC (Siena); MEAC (Morgan State); Northeast (Robert Morris); Ohio Valley (Murray State); Patriot (Lehigh); Southern (Charleston); Southland (Sam Houston State); Summit (Oakland); Sun Belt (North Texas); SWAC (Jackson State);

Thats 31 bids gone right there, so there are 34 left.

Locks (19):

Villanova, WVU, Pitt, Georgetown, OSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State

13 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:

1-UNLV (21-7 (10-5), RPI #44, SOS #90)

2-Louisville (19-11 (10-7), RPI #37, SOS #7)

3-Wake Forest (18-9 (8-7), RPI #34, SOS #32)

Bubble IN:

4-Marquette (20-9 (11-6), RPI #48, SOS #53)

5-Georgia Tech (18-10 (7-8), RPI #34, SOS #21)

6-Illinois (18-11 (10-6), RPI #71, SOS #47)

7-Virginia Tech (22-7 (9-6), RPI #55, SOS #132)

8-Notre Dame (20-10 (9-8), RPI #65, SOS #55)

9-Florida (20-10 (9-6), RPI #52, SOS #36)

10-Connecticut (17-13 (7-10), RPI #49, SOS #2)

11-San Diego State (19-8 (9-5), RPI #31, SOS #58)

12-Rhode Island (21-7 (9-6), RPI #30, SOS #63)

13-St. Mary's (23-5 (11-3), RPI #45, SOS #143)

---------------------

Ole Miss (20-9 (9-7), RPI #57, SOS #69)

UAB (23-6 (11-4), RPI #41, SOS #101)

Memphis (22-8 (12-3), RPI #50, SOS #85)

Dayton (19-10 (8-7), RPI #42, SOS #34)

Washington (20-9 (10-7), RPI #53, SOS #60)

Seton Hall (17-11 (8-9), RPI #56, SOS #25)

Arizona State (21-9 (11-6), RPI #54, SOS #70)

Cincinnati (16-13 (7-10), RPI #63, SOS #12)

Minnesota (17-11 (8-8), RPI #76, SOS #43)

Miss State (21-9 (9-6), RPI #61, SOS #113)

Dropped Out:

Charlotte

New team(s):

None

I'm now on Twitter!

I have gone to the dark side... There is a link on the right hand side of this blog or you can click here: http://twitter.com/The_Bracket_Man

Thanks!

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #5 & Games to Watch

Three teams have moved into the lock section: Maryland, Texas A&M and Missouri. That means the overall at-large bid pool is now at 15, 12 of which are labeled as "bubble positions".

Minnesota has re-appeared on the bubble after beating Illinois and South Florida has dropped out. Rhode Island dropped from bubble IN and was replaced by San Diego State.

Auto-bids, non 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 12 Bids: A10-Temple, ACC-Duke, B12-Kansas, BE-Syracuse, B10-MSU, CUSA-UTEP, Horizon-Butler,MVC-Northern Iowa, MWC-New Mexico, P10-California, SEC-Kentucky, WCC-Gonzaga

Auto-bids, 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 19 bids: America East (Stony Brook); Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville); Big Sky (Weber State); Big South (Coastal Carolina); Big West (UC Santa Barbara); Colonial Athletic (Old Dominion); Ivy (Cornell); MAC (Kent State); MAAC (Siena); MEAC (Morgan State); Northeast (Robert Morris); Ohio Valley (Murray State); Patriot (Lehigh); Southern (Charleston); Southland (Sam Houston State); Summit (Oakland); Sun Belt (North Texas); SWAC (Jackson State); WAC (Utah State)

Thats 31 bids gone right there, so there are 34 left.

Locks (19):
Villanova, WVU, Pitt, Georgetown, OSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor,Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, Maryland

15 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:
1-Wake Forest (18-8 (8-6), RPI #29, SOS #34)
2-Georgia Tech (19-9 (7-7), RPI #33, SOS #20)
3-UNLV (22-7 (10-5), RPI #43, SOS #96)

Bubble IN:
4-Louisville (19-10 (10-6), RPI #32, SOS #5)
5-Clemson (20-8 (8-6), RPI #27, SOS #30)
6-UAB (23-5 (11-3), RPI #35, SOS #111)
7-Florida State (20-8 (8-6), RPI #42, SOS #50)
8-Florida (20-9 (9-5), RPI #48, SOS #59)
9-Marquette (19-9 (10-6), RPI #49, SOS #67)
10-Illinois (18-11 (10-6), RPI #73, SOS #64)
11-Connecticut (17-12 (7-9), RPI #44, SOS #2)
12-Ole Miss (18-9 (7-7), RPI #55, SOS #65)
13-Virginia Tech (21-7 (8-6), RPI #52, SOS #156)
14-San Diego State (20-8 (9-5), RPI #39, SOS #56)
15-St. Mary's (24-5 (11-3), RPI #45, SOS #142)
---------------------
Rhode Island (20-7 (8-6), RPI #37, SOS #68)
Dayton (19-9 (8-6), RPI #41, SOS #37)
Miss State (21-8 (9-5), RPI #56, SOS #128)
Notre Dame (19-10 (8-8), RPI #68, SOS #53)
Minnesota (17-11 (8-8), RPI #70, SOS #38)
Arizona State (20-9 (10-6), RPI #54, SOS #74)
Charlotte (19-9 (9-5), RPI #62, SOS #116)
Washington (19-9 (9-7), RPI #53, SOS #58)
Memphis (21-8 (11-3), RPI #64, SOS #98)
Cincinnati (16-12 (7-9), RPI #58, SOS #17)
Seton Hall (16-11 (7-9), RPI #63, SOS #16)

Dropped Out:
South Florida

New team(s):
Minnesota

No games on Monday.

Tuesday's games:

#9 Villanova @ Cincinnati (7PM ESPN2) - Cincinnati is on the ropes. They are eliminated with a loss.

#19 Vanderbilt @ Florida (7PM ESPN) -

Minnesota @ Michigan (7PM BTN) - Minnesota is back on the bubble after a win against the Illini, but they must win this game to stay on it.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson (8PM ESPN360) -

Louisville @ Marquette (930 ESPNU) -

Wednesday:

Memphis @ UAB (7PM) - Huge games for both teams, more so for Memphis - they are likely done with a loss.

Wake Forest @ Florida State (7PM ESPN2) - Wake Forest is really slipping, they can be lock city with a few more wins.

UConn @ Notre Dame (7PM ESPN) - Huge game for both teams. UConn has a hair more leeway than ND.

Charlotte @ Rhode Island (7PM) - Big bubble game in the A10. The loser is almost eliminated since both teams are OUT right now.

NC State @ Virginia Tech (7PM) - VT can't afford a loss here.

Miss State @ Auburn (8PM ESPN360) - Ditto for Miss State.

Colorado State @ San Diego State (1030PM) - The Aztecs are only barely in the field of 65. They can't afford anymore losses with their weak schedule.

Thursday:

Seton Hall @ Rutgers (7PM ESPN) - SHU is in the same boat as Cincinnati. 1 more loss and they are eliminated.

Dayton @ Richmond (7PM) - Richmond has wrapped up a bid, Dayton is on the outside looking in.

USC @ Arizona State (830PM) - Arizona suffered a devastating loss to CAL last week, another loss and they are done.

LSU @ Ole Miss (9PM ESPN) - Ole Miss cannot lose this game to bottom feeding LSU.

Washington @ Oregon (10PM) - Must win for the Huskies.

Next update: 3/5

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #4 & Weekend Games to Watch

Format is going to be changed around a little bit so that it is more thorough.

Auto-bids, non 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 12 Bids: A10-Temple, ACC-Duke, B12-Kansas, BE-Syracuse, B10-Purdue, CUSA-UTEP, Horizon-Butler,MVC-Northern Iowa, MWC-New Mexico, P10-California, SEC-Kentucky, WCC-Gonzaga

Auto-bids, 1 bid leagues (Current conference leaders) 19 bids: America East (Stony Brook); Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville); Big Sky (Weber State); Big South (Coastal Carolina); Big West (UC Santa Barbara); Colonial Athletic (Old Dominion); Ivy (Cornell); MAC (Kent State); MAAC (Siena); MEAC (Morgan State); Northeast (Robert Morris); Ohio Valley (Murray State); Patriot (Lehigh); Southern (Charleston); Southland (Sam Houston State); Summit (Oakland); Sun Belt (North Texas); SWAC (Jackson State); WAC (Utah State)

Thats 31 bids gone right there, so there are 34 left.

Locks (15):
Villanova, WVU, Pitt, Georgetown, OSU, MSU, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU

19 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:
1-Missouri (21-7 (9-4), RPI #39, SOS #69)
2-Wake Forest (18-7 (8-5), RPI #21, SOS #26)
3-Texas A&M (18-8 (8-5), RPI #18, SOS #3)
4-Oklahoma State (19-8 (7-6), RPI #32, SOS #37)
5-Maryland (19-7 (10-3), RPI #28, SOS #24)
6-UNLV (20-7 (9-5), RPI #44, SOS #82)
7-Florida State (20-7 (8-5), RPI #33, SOS #48)
8-Georgia Tech (17-9 (6-7), RPI #34, SOS #14)

Bubble IN:
9-Louisville (18-10 (9-6), RPI #41, SOS #6)
10-UAB (22-5 (10-3), RPI #30, SOS #103)
11-Florida (20-8 (9-4), RPI #45, SOS #49)
12-Clemson (19-8 (7-6), RPI #37, SOS #35)
13-Illinois (18-10 (10-5), RPI #63, SOS #66)
14-Connecticut (17-11 (7-8), RPI #40, SOS #2)
15-Rhode Island (20-6 (8-5), RPI #26, SOS #64)
16-Virginia Tech (21-6 (8-5), RPI #47, SOS #160)
17-Marquette (18-9 (9-6), RPI #55, SOS #65)
18-St. Mary's (22-5 (10-3), RPI #50, SOS #153)
19-Ole Miss (18-9 (6-7), RPI #61, SOS #63)
---------------------
Dayton (18-9 (7-6), RPI #43, SOS #30)

Arizona State (20-8 (10-5), RPI #54, SOS #78)

Charlotte (19-8 (9-4), RPI #56, SOS #118)
San Diego State (18-8 (9-5), RPI #38, SOS #54)

Miss State (20-8 (8-5), RPI #58, SOS #120)
Cincinnati (16-11 (7-8), RPI #59, SOS #29)
Seton Hall (16-10 (7-8), RPI #52, SOS #18)
South Florida (16-11 (6-9), RPI #66, SOS #37)
Notre Dame (18-10 (7-8), RPI #72, SOS #61)
Washington (18-9 (8-7), RPI #64, SOS #59)
Memphis (20-8 (10-3), RPI #64, SOS #110)

Dropped Out:
Minnesota - Devastating loss to Purdue.
William & Mary - Very bad loss to Towson.

New team(s):
Notre Dame - A huge win at home over Pitt without Gody will propel a fringe bubble team right into the thick of things.

Saturday's games:

#1 Kansas @ Oklahoma State - Oklahoma will be lock status if they can pull off the upset.

Cincinnati @ #7 WVU - Cincy is on life support. They desperately need this game.

Notre Dame @ #13 Georgetown - Can ND knock off two Top 25 teams in a row?

Boston College @ Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech needs to stop the bleeding.

Tulane @ UAB - No reason UAB should lose this one.

Rhode Island @ St Bonaventure - Ditto.

Arizona State @ California - Huge game in the P10. CAL has a terrible resume besides their RPI and SOS.

UNLV @ Air Force - UNLV should win.

Florida @ Georgia - Ditto for Florida.

Maryland @ Virginia Tech - Huge bubble game in the ACC. VT needs this game more than Maryland.

VCU @ Old Dominion - Once bubble hopeful VCU looks to spoil Old Dom's at-large chances.

Minnesota @ Illinois - Minnesota suffered a heartbreaker against Purdue. Any thread of hope is gone with a loss @Illinois.

Charlotte @ George Washington - Charlotte needs this win.

Miss State @ South Carolina - Miss State is struggling.

UMass @ Dayton - Dayton needs more A10 wins.

Loyola Marymount @ St Mary's - St Mary's doesn't control their own destiny. They are hoping for other bubble teams to falter. If they lose, it wont matter what the bubble does.

Washington @ Washington State - Must win for the Huskies.

Sunday's games:

Marquette @ Seton Hall - SHU desperately needs this game. They could potentially hurdle Marquette with the win.

Louisville @ UConn - Huge game. Louisville has a brutal BE stretch, they probably need this more.

Clemson @ Florida State - 2 relatively even teams in the ACC. I say that Clemson needs this one more.

Bubble Bursting Wednesday Ahead, UConn surging

Winners:

UConn - Huge win against Top Ten WVU.
Illinois - Ugly win against Michigan.
Old Dominion - Close win against Georgia State.
Seton Hall - Led by double digits for nearly the entire game, but almost let it slip at the end.

Florida - Big home win against ranked Tennessee. The Gators are making the most of this brutal SEC stretch so far.

Losers:
Louisville - Led at the half, and collapsed in the second half against Georgetown.
Northern Iowa - Lose against lowly Evansville. Their at-large hopes are getting slim if they don't win the conference tournament.

Tomorrow's games:

#3 Purdue @ Minnesota - Minnesota has re-emerged on the bubble scene. A win against Top 5 Purdue would really help.

USF @ #8 Villanova - Once hot USF is now cold, a road game against Villanova doesn't look good for the Bulls.

San Diego State @ #11 BYU - San Diego State can propel themselves into "Last Four Ins" nationwide if they pull off the road win @BYU.

#16 Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame is tough to beat at home, but they have been reeling lately.

Dayton @ #18 Temple - Dayton is in desperate need of a win, but a road game @Temple isn't the easiest win to come by.

Oklahoma State @ #21 Texas - Oklahoma State can wrap up a bid with a road win @ Texas.

#25 UTEP @ Southern Miss. - Newly ranked UTEP looks to continue their CUSA dominance.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - VT can't afford any bad losses.

Florida State @ UNC - Florida State's best chance to win in UNC in a long time.

UAB @ UCF - UAB can't lose.

Towson @ William & Mary - William & Mary is hanging on by threads, and can't afford a loss to Towson.

Depaul @ Cincinnati - Ditto, minus the threads part.

St Joes @ Charlotte - Must win.

Marquette @ SJU - SJU is a pretty good home team. Marquette can't take them lightly.

Xavier @ St Louis - St Louis needs this win or their bubble position will be short lived.

Clemson @ Maryland - Big ACC bubble game.

Alabama @ Miss St - Miss State is pretty much done with a loss.

TCU @ UNLV - UNLV needs to stop the skid here.

Thursday's games:

Arizona @ California - California has no shot at an at-large if they lose games like this.

Arizona State @ Stanford - Must win for ASU.

Pepperdine @ St Mary's - Ditto.

Utah State @ Hawaii - Ditto.

Bubble Picture Update after Thursday's games!

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #3 & Games to Watch

The bubble is really starting to show some true "form". It continues to stay relatively weak in comparison with previous seasons. USF, Dayton and Ole Miss all dropped from IN to OUT. St Mary's, UConn and Florida took their places. Richmond and Oklahoma State played themselves into the "watch your back" region. Rhode Island and UNLV played themselves out of a relatively safe position. Rhode Island is squarely on the bubble, while UNLV is only slightly ahead of them.

Locks:

1- Nova

2- Texas

3- Gtown

4- Kansas State

5- WVU

6- Purdue

7- Tennessee

8- Wisconsin

9- Pitt

10- Vanderbilt

11- Georgia Tech

12- Ohio State

13- BYU

14- Baylor

Now we enter the "Watch your back region":

15- Missouri (20-7) (RPI: 39, SOS: 58)

16- Wake Forest (18-7) (RPI: 21, SOS: 25)

17- Texas A&M (18-7) (RPI: 12, SOS: 6)

18- Xavier (19-7) (RPI: 20, SOS: 13)

19- Oklahoma State (19-7) (RPI: 29, SOS: 40)

20- Richmond (22-6) (RPI: 26, SOS: 80)

Bubble-IN:

21- Maryland (18-7) (RPI: 36, SOS: 30)

22- UNLV (19-7) (RPI: 42, SOS:62)

23- Louisville (18-9) (RPI: 30, SOS: 7)

24- Illinois (17-10) (RPI: 68, SOS: 53)

25- Florida State (19-7) (RPI: 40, SOS: 56)

26- Virginia Tech (21-5) (RPI: 43, SOS: 142)

27- Marquette (17-9) (RPI: 59, SOS: 50)

28- UAB (21-5) (RPI:31, SOS: 94)

29- Rhode Island (20-6) (RPI: 25, SOS: 61)

30- Clemson (19-7) (RPI: 35, SOS: 35)

31- Florida (19-8) (RPI: 53, SOS: 57)

32- Old Dominion (21-8) (RPI: 41, SOS: 86)

33- St Mary's (22-5) (RPI: 46, SOS: 125)

34- UConn (16-11) (RPI: 45, SOS: 2)

--------------------------------------------

Dayton (18-8) (RPI:43, SOS 41)

Mississippi (17-9) (RPI: 63, SOS: 54)

South Florida (16-10) (RPI: 68, SOS: 43)

Cincinnati (15-11) (RPI:56, SOS: 16)

Washington (18-9) (RPI: 60, SOS: 49)

San Diego State (18-7) (RPI: 38, SOS: 71)

Mississippi St (19-8) (RPI:65, SOS: 115)

Charlotte (18-8) (RPI: 55, SOS: 98)

Seton Hall (15-10) (RPI: 52 , SOS: 11)

Arizona state (19-8) (RPI: 58, SOS: 74)

Memphis (20-7) (RPI:60, SOS:107)

William & Mary (18-8) (RPI: 48, SOS:87)

Minnesota (16-10) (RPI:77, SOS:53)

Dropped out:

Northwestern - Losing 3 out of their last 4 including losses to Iowa and PSU will do this to a bubble team.

Northeastern - Lost 2 out last 3, including 2 crucial games against W&M and LTech.

Notre Dame - Dropped 3 straight.

Texas Tech - Have lost 3 straight. Their RPI Top 50 record is 1-10. 3-10 vs Top 100. Somehow they still have a good RPI.

New team(s):

Minnesota - Tubby shortened his rotation and won by 16 against Wisky.

Teams to watch:

St Louis (17-8) (RPI: 82, SOS: 137)- With games against Xaiver, Temple and Dayton in their last 4, they can certainly make some bubble teams nervous if they win out.

Next update: Evening of 2/25

Tonight's games:

#7 WVU vs UConn (7PM ESPN) - UConn is squarely on the bubble. Another Top 10 win and this team would be hard to deny. Top 10 SOS, decent RPI, and 3 Top 10 wins?

Tomorrow's games:

#10 Georgetown vs Louisville (7PM ESPN2) - Louisville has really improved their chances after losing @SJU. A win against #10 Gtown would nearly put them at lock status.

Illinois vs Michigan (7PM ESPN) - Illinois can't lose this game.

Old Dominion vs Georgia State (7PM) - Ditto.

Rutgers vs Seton Hall (7PM ESPN360) - Must win game for the Hall. Its also a huge rivalry game.

#18 Tennessee vs Florida (9PM ESPN) - Florida is in a brutal stretch of their SEC schedule. They can pull out some big wins in it, or fold their NCAA hopes.

"Bracket Buster" Recap, Big Saturday Ahead

Winners:

Florida - Only won by 8, going to have to play better if they want to be in the Dance.

Dayton - Stopped their skid with a must win.

St Mary's - Hanging on for dear life..

Northern Iowa - Very nice win over Old Dom, should be a lock now.

Cornell - Huge win over Harvard. Unless they lose to Princeton, they should have the Ivy wrapped up.

Losers:

Ole Miss - Close loss to Vandy, they needed that one..

Marquette - Miss out on a quality win once again.

Washington - 3 point loss to USC, desperately needed that one.

Old Dominion - Lose a respectable game at UNI.

William & Mary - Bad loss to Iona. Tournament chances are pretty much gone now.

Tomorrow's games:

Siena vs #13 Butler (11AM ESPN2) - Siena is a bubble-out team (IMO) if they lose in their conference tournament. This game would definitely help their resume.

Seton Hall @ #8 WVU (Noon ESPN) - Huge game for the possibly Hazell-less Pirates. A win against Top 10 WVU in Morgantown would work wonders for their resume.

Florida vs Ole Miss (Noon CBS) - Huge bubble game in the SEC. Loser might be bubble-out come tournament time. Florida is going into the hardest part of their schedule.

St John's vs South Florida (12PM ESPN360) - USF cant afford any more losses. St Johns has 2 players suspended which will help the Bull's case.

Northeastern vs Louisiana Tech (1PM ESPN2) - Northeastern is a fringe bubble team at best.

#22 Baylor vs Oklahoma State (130PM ESPN360) - Both teams are sitting pretty, but Ok State could use the win more.

Georgia Tech vs Maryland (2PM ESPN360) - GT has been slipping, big game for Maryland as well.

Xavier vs Charlotte (2PM) - Charlotte's chances are getting slimmer by the day, they need this win.

Louisville vs Depaul (2PM ESPNU) - Louisville has really righted the ship over the last week+, they cant let another bad loss on their resume.

Illinois vs #4 Purdue (4PM ESPN) - Illinois attempted to notch a huge win on their resume against OSU but got trounced. How about Purdue?

Miss St vs LSU (4PM ESPN360) - Miss State can't lose this game.

UTEP vs Tulsa (4PM) - Tulsa's bubble chances have gone down the toilet, are they going to bring down C-USA leading UTEP with them?

Fordham vs Rhode Island (4PM) - Rhode Island hasn't look good lately, a loss to Fordham would be disastrous.

Rutgers vs UConn (4PM ESPNU360) - Rutgers is playing the best they have all season, look out, UConn.

Virginia vs Clemson (4PM ESPN) - Virginia lost their bubble spot over the last week, Clemson is right on the bubble.

Missouri vs Nebraska (6PM ESPN360) - Missouri needs to get on a little run before they play KState.

Colorado St vs UNLV (6PM) - UNLV went from a lock, to a "watch your back" lately, they need to right the ship.

George Washington vs Richmond (7PM) - Richmond is nearly a lock, time for them to seal the deal.

Houston vs UAB (8PM) - Must win for UAB.
San Diego State vs Utah (9PM) - Both teams are pretty hot, San Diego State needs the win.

Washington vs UCLA (9PM ESPN) - Washington's bubble chances took a huge hit when they lost to USC, can't afford to lose here.

Wichita State vs Utah State (Midnight ESPN2) - Both teams are bubble-out teams at this point if they don't win the conference tournaments.

Bubble Games Update #4

Last night's results:

Winners:

Louisville - Big 2OT win over Gody-less ND. Samuels had 36.

Seton Hall - Scrappy win in Queens without Hazell for most of the game.

Florida State

Richmond

Memphis

Oklahoma State

Xavier
Maryland

UAB

Losers:

Notre Dame - Eliminated.

Tulsa - Crucial loss to Marshall. Likely eliminated.

Charlotte - Very bad loss for Charlotte's chances against Duquesne.

Northwestern - Loss gave PSU their first conference win. PSU played a very good team game.

Rhode Island - Bad loss to streaking St Louis.

UNLV - Another loss, this time to Utah.

Today:

Vandy vs Ole Miss (7PM ESPNU) - Ole Miss is right on the bubble, need this win.

Pittsburgh vs Marquette (9PM ESPN2) - Another quality win could go a long way for MU.

Auburn vs Florida (7PM ESPN) - Must win game for Florida.

La Salle vs Dayton (7PM) - Dayton cannot afford another loss, they are right on the bubble.

USC vs Washington (1030PM) - Would be a huge overall game if USC was eligible, but its just a huge game for Washington.

St Mary's vs San Diego (11PM ESPN2) - St Mary's at-large chances aren't looking good, must win.

Tomorrow:

Old Dominion vs Northern Iowa (7PM ESPN2) - Huge mid-major game. Does nothing in terms of conference standings (OOC game), but a win really helps the victor's at-large chances if they don't win their respective conference tournaments.

Cornell vs Harvard (7PM) - Harvard can tie Cornell for first in the Ivy with a win (split series). But they lost by 36 the first time around...

William & Mary vs Iona (9PM ESPNU) - William & Mary needs more wins to stay alive, but a win against a game Iona team won't come easy.

Who's IN, and who's OUT? #2

This list does not include current current conference leaders.

Locks:

1- Nova

2- Texas

3- Gtown

4- Kansas State

5- WVU

6- Purdue

7- Tennessee

8- Wisconsin

9- Pitt

10- Vanderbilt

11- Georgia Tech

12- Ohio State

13- BYU

14- Baylor

Now we enter the "Watch your back region":

15- Missouri (18-7) (RPI: 47, SOS: 56)

16- Wake Forest (18-6) (RPI: 12, SOS: 20)

17- Texas A&M (17-7) (RPI: 18, SOS: 6)

18- Xavier (17-7) (RPI: 20, SOS: 19)

19- UNLV (18-6) (RPI: 34, SOS:52)

20- Rhode Island (19-5) (RPI: 22, SOS: 43)

Bubble-IN:

21- Maryland (16-7) (RPI: 42, SOS: 31)

22- Oklahoma State (17-7) (RPI: 38, SOS: 45)

23- Richmond (20-6) (RPI: 27, SOS: 54)

24- Illinois (17-9) (RPI: 68, SOS: 64)

25- Florida State (18-7) (RPI: 43, SOS: 55)

26- Louisville (16-9) (RPI: 30, SOS: 4)

27- Marquette (16-8) (RPI: 59, SOS: 57)

28- UAB (19-5) (RPI:36, SOS: 95)

29- Virginia Tech (21-4) (RPI: 44, SOS: 151)

30- Clemson (18-7) (RPI: 32, SOS: 34)

31- South Florida (16-9) (RPI: 55, SOS: 36)

32- Old Dominion (21-7) (RPI: 40, SOS: 96)

33- Mississippi (17-7) (RPI: 51, SOS: 61)

34- Dayton (17-7) (RPI:35, SOS 35)

--------------------------------------------

Florida (17-8) (RPI: 60, SOS: 58)

Cincy (15-10) (RPI:52, SOS: 13)

St Mary's (21-5) (RPI: 46, SOS: 110)

Mississippi St (18-8) (RPI:63, SOS: 97)

Washington (17-8) (RPI: 53, SOS: 41)

San Diego State (17-7) (RPI: 37, SOS: 72)

UConn (15-11) (RPI: 50, SOS: 1)

Charlotte (18-6) (RPI: 41, SOS: 100)

Seton Hall (14-9) (RPI: 57 , SOS: 18)

Arizona state (18-8) (RPI: 65, SOS: 73)

Northwestern (17-8) (RPI: 74, SOS: 86)

Memphis (18-7) (RPI:58, SOS: 81)

Texas Tech (16-9) (RPI: 39, SOS: 15)

Notre Dame (17-9) (RPI: 79, SOS: 62)

Northeastern (18-9) (RPI: 61, SOS: 92)**

William & Mary (18-7) (RPI: 48, SOS: 91)

Dropped out:

Virginia

South Carolina

New team(s):

William & Mary

Bubble Games Update #3

My bubble situation will be posted around 1ET tomorrow!

Winners:

UConn - Huge resume win @Nova. They need wins, and big wins.

Maryland - Quality win over Virginia in a make up game.

Virginia Tech - Moving closer and closer to a lock with win over Top 25 Wake Forest.

William & Mary - Nip George Mason by 3. They are likely the second best resume out of the CAA after Old Dominion. Northeastern trails close behind.

USF - Huge win over fellow BE bubble team Cincinnati.

San Diego State - Stay afloat win over TCU.

Losers:

Virginia - Likely eliminated with lost against Maryland.

Texas A&M - Not a bad loss to Kansas, but they could have locked up a bid.

Miss. State - Close loss to Kentucky. Their fans are the real losers.

Texas Tech - THUMPED by Baylor.

Cincinnati

Miss. State Faithful - Throwing water bottles on the court? Harassing Cousins via phone calls and text messages? Disgraceful.

Tomorrow's games:

Notre Dame @ Louisville - Any hope ND has left of making the Dance will vanish with a loss.

Louisiana Tech vs Utah State - LTech has a nice record due to CUPCAKES. Their only good win is against... UTAH STATE.

Seton Hall @ St Johns - SHU desperately needs a road BE win. They have had trouble in Queens under Gonzalez. A win here is essential for their post season chances.

Penn State vs Northwestern - NW can kiss any NCAA post season dreams good bye with a loss against B10 winless PSU. (Go Lions!)

Other misc. bubble games:

Florida State vs Virginia - FSU's stock has been dropping for awhile, but Virginia's is rock bottom. Only one can prevail..

Rhode Island vs Saint Louis - Don't underestimate St Louis. They can play! Just ask Dayton.

Maryland vs NC State - Maryland started off the ACC season HOT. Why stop now?

Xavier vs St Joes - Musketeers have a nice computer resume, but some more wins could help.

Oklahoma State vs Iowa State - Cowboys are pushing towards a LOCK.

Charlotte vs Duquesne - Charlotte needs to rack up the wins.

Bubble Games Update #2

Winners:

Seton Hall - A late game collapse almost cost SHU the game.

Louisville - Huge win over a Top 5 team on the road.

Northwestern - Crucial win over fellow B10 bubble team Minnesota.

Florida State

Losers:

Minnesota - Terrible loss for Minnesota's NCAA chances.

Notre Dame - Ditto. ND will likely lose to Louisville in their next game without Gody.

Illinois - Could have sealed an NCAA bid today, got crushed instead.

Tomorrow's games:

Kansas vs Texas A&M - A&M is relatively safe. This win would propel them to a LOCK position.

UConn vs Villanova - UConn desperately needs this game. Their stock is falling along with ND's

Virginia vs Maryland - Virginia is eliminated with a loss.

Tuesday's games:

Kentucky vs Mississippi State - Miss St really needs this win, they are currently on the outside looking in.

Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech - Wake Forest is looking like a LOCK, but VT has some work to do.

William & Mary vs George Mason - W&M has taken Northeastern's spot for the time being.

Cincinnati vs USF - Big bubble battle in the Big East, lol.

Texas Tech vs Baylor - Baylor is looking good. TTU is the only true B12 bubble team.

San Diego State vs TCU - San Diego State needs to string some wins together and build off the UNLV win.

Next Update: 2/16 (early)

Bubble Games Update #1

Games of February 13th, 2010:

Winners:

Mississippi State

Cincinnati - Big win @UConn

Clemson

Oklahoma State

Richmond

California

Old Dominion

San Diego State - Huge win over Top 25 UNLV

Texas A&M - Pretty much solidifies a big with win over TTU

Arizona State

Xavier - Quality win @Florida

Memphis

Virginia Tech

Washington

Marquette - Big win over fellow bubble team USF

UTEP

Utah State

Losers:

UConn - Critical loss to fellow BE bubble team Cincinnati.

Maryland

Northern Iowa - Bad loss to Bradley. Another bad loss would place them right around the bubble if they weren't to win their conference championship.

South Carolina - Out of contention

Rhode Island

UNLV

Dayton - Bad loss to St Louis

Texas Tech - Crucial loss to A&M. Only true bubble team in the Big 12.

Florida

Northeastern - 1 point loss to William & Mary, who probably take over Northeastern's spot on this list.

UAB

Virginia - Any chance at an at-large are extremely slim.

USF

St Mary's - crushing loss in OT to Portland. At-large chances are pretty much done.

Tomorrow's games:

Depaul @ Seton Hall - Stay afloat game for SHU

Louisville @ Syracuse - Do or die for Louisville.

Ohio State vs Illinois - Illinois all but wraps up an at-large with another big win vs OSU.

Minnesota vs Northwestern - Loser is pretty much eliminated, winner lives to fight another day

Florida State vs Boston College - Stay afloat game for FSU

St Johns vs Notre Dame - ND needs wins, but 'Gody is out. Going to be a tough one for the Irish.

Who's IN, and who's OUT?

As of all games through Feb 12th, 2010:

First, lets list all of the "1 Bid Leagues"

1 Bid Leagues (17) - assuming the current conference leader wins:

American East - Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun - 5 teams tied first first...

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big West - UC Santa Barbara / Pacific

Ivy League - Princeton (very close race, Cornell plays Princeton tonight)

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

Northeast - Robert Morris

OVC - Murray St

Patriot - Lehigh / Navy

Southern - College of Charleston

Southland - Sam Houston State

SAC - Jackson State

Summit - Oakland

Sunbelt - Middle Tennessee

It doesn't really matter who wins all of these leagues so we won't spend much time on them. Some may argue that Cornell and Siena can snag at larges, but they can't. Cornell has beaten no one above RPI 80~ and will have 2 very bad losses if they don't win the Ivy (Penn and whoever else they would have to lose to).

2 of these auto-bid teams would play in the play in game, so essentially these teams take up 16 bids from the 64 bracket. So already we are down to 48 spots.

Now lets factor out the rest of the conference champions (assuming an already at large team wins and another Georgia doesn't happen).

(14)

A10 - Temple

ACC - Duke

B12 - Kansas

BE - Syracuse

B10 - MSU

CAA - Northeastern - This conference is complicated at this point though.

C-USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

MVC - Northern Iowa

MWC - New Mexico

P10 - CAL

SEC - Kentucky

WCC - Gonzaga

WAC - Utah State

So assuming all those teams win their conference that is another 14 bids gone. We are down to 34 at large spots. I will divide the remaining teams into pools of categories such as "Locks", "Locks unless a collapse", etc. The number next to each team is just a marker for each NCAA slot, not a seed.

Locks barring a complete collapse:

1- Nova

2- Texas

3- Gtown

4- Kansas State

5- WVU

6- Purdue

7- Tennessee

8- Wisconsin

9- Pitt

10- Vanderbilt

11- Georgia Tech

12- Ohio State

13- BYU

14- Baylor

15- Missouri

16- UNLV

Now we enter the "Watch your back region":

17- Xavier (RPI: 27, SOS: 15)

18- Wake Forest (RPI: 12, SOS: 27)

19- Texas A&M (16-6) (RPI: 19, SOS: 14)

20- Rhode Island (19-4) (RPI: 21, SOS: 54)

21- Maryland (15-6) (RPI: 39, SOS: 41)

Bubble-IN:

22- Oklahoma State (16-7) (RPI: 37, SOS: 40)

23- Richmond (19-6) (RPI: 26, SOS: 48)

24- Clemson (17-7) (RPI: 35, SOS: 31)

25- Florida State (17-7) (RPI: 39, SOS: 49)

26- Dayton (17-6) (RPI:32, SOS 33)

27- Marquette (15-8) (RPI: 66, SOS: 54)

28- Florida (17-7) (RPI: 52, SOS: 63)

29- Mississippi (17-7) (RPI: 45, SOS: 56)

30- Virginia Tech (19-4) (RPI: 54, SOS: 175)

31- Illinois (17-8) (RPI: 63, SOS: 70)

32- Old Dominion (19-7) (RPI: 36, SOS: 76)

33- St Mary's (21-4) (RPI: 43, SOS: 115)

34- Cincy (14-9) (RPI:55, SOS: 17)

--------------------------------------------

South Florida (15-8) (RPI: 50, SOS: 35)

Charlotte (18-6) (RPI: 42, SOS: 105)
Louisville (15-9) (RPI: 46, SOS: 6)
Minnesota (14-9) (RPI: 77, SOS: 52)
Mississippi St (17-7) (RPI:65, SOS: 110)
Notre Dame (17-8) (RPI: 67, SOS: 58)
Arizona state (17-8) (RPI: 74, SOS: 81)
UConn (14-10) (RPI: 51, SOS: 2)
Northwestern (16-8) (RPI: 78, SOS: 88)
Washington (16-8) (RPI: 58, SOS: 32)
Texas Tech (16-7) (RPI: 30, SOS: 21)
Northeastern (17-8) (RPI: 60, SOS: 75)**
San Diego State (15-7) (RPI: 44, SOS: 72)
Memphis (17-7) (RPI:71, SOS: 90)
south carolina: (14-9) (RPI: 64, SOS: 25)
Seton Hall (13-9) (RPI: 57 , SOS: 7)
UAB (19-4) (RPI:31, SOS: 92)

** - Had to include both Old Dom and Northeastern from the CAA since there isn't a clear favorite in that league for the auto-bid. However, Old Dominion would most likely be IN at this point, and Northeastern OUT if both were at-larges right now. But come conference tournament time, if Old Dominion was to lose against a bad team, they could be out.

Some teams to look at if they make a run:

Virginia

Arizona

VCU

George Mason

William & Mary

Red teams signify they are dropping in value. Green teams signify the opposite; their value is rising.

Note: Exact rankings are not completely correct yet. Ex: team A in slot 24 is not necessarily in a better bubble position than team B in slot 25. The accuracy to that nature will increase as we approach Selection Sunday. Teams that are "on the bubble" will be more accurately ranked. Teams that are currently "out" are also not perfectly ranked either.

I am happy to take criticism, arguments, and comments. I will respond to them as frequently and accurately as I can.

Note#2: These rankings are slightly different than my rankings @ PSUHoops (http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php?topic=750.45). From now on, the rankings will be identical.

Welcome to my blog!

Self titled "The Bracket Man", I'm here to provide my followers and fans with complete, extensive, and up to date NCAA Mens Basketball Bubble and NCAA Tournament information.

A little about myself:

Name: Chris

Age:19

Hometown: Scotch Plains/NJ

Favorite team(s): Seton Hall and Penn State

Other team(s): NJ Devils, Penn State Football

Email: spfsoccer@gmail.com

Other forms of contact: www.pennstatehoops.com/talk - Member name:noobd , www.nj.com/forums/setonhall - Member name:spfsoccer17

Hopefully you like what I provide here and continue to follow my blog!