Who's IN, and who's OUT?

As of all games through Feb 12th, 2010:

First, lets list all of the "1 Bid Leagues"

1 Bid Leagues (17) - assuming the current conference leader wins:

American East - Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun - 5 teams tied first first...

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big West - UC Santa Barbara / Pacific

Ivy League - Princeton (very close race, Cornell plays Princeton tonight)

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

Northeast - Robert Morris

OVC - Murray St

Patriot - Lehigh / Navy

Southern - College of Charleston

Southland - Sam Houston State

SAC - Jackson State

Summit - Oakland

Sunbelt - Middle Tennessee

It doesn't really matter who wins all of these leagues so we won't spend much time on them. Some may argue that Cornell and Siena can snag at larges, but they can't. Cornell has beaten no one above RPI 80~ and will have 2 very bad losses if they don't win the Ivy (Penn and whoever else they would have to lose to).

2 of these auto-bid teams would play in the play in game, so essentially these teams take up 16 bids from the 64 bracket. So already we are down to 48 spots.

Now lets factor out the rest of the conference champions (assuming an already at large team wins and another Georgia doesn't happen).

(14)

A10 - Temple

ACC - Duke

B12 - Kansas

BE - Syracuse

B10 - MSU

CAA - Northeastern - This conference is complicated at this point though.

C-USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

MVC - Northern Iowa

MWC - New Mexico

P10 - CAL

SEC - Kentucky

WCC - Gonzaga

WAC - Utah State

So assuming all those teams win their conference that is another 14 bids gone. We are down to 34 at large spots. I will divide the remaining teams into pools of categories such as "Locks", "Locks unless a collapse", etc. The number next to each team is just a marker for each NCAA slot, not a seed.

Locks barring a complete collapse:

1- Nova

2- Texas

3- Gtown

4- Kansas State

5- WVU

6- Purdue

7- Tennessee

8- Wisconsin

9- Pitt

10- Vanderbilt

11- Georgia Tech

12- Ohio State

13- BYU

14- Baylor

15- Missouri

16- UNLV

Now we enter the "Watch your back region":

17- Xavier (RPI: 27, SOS: 15)

18- Wake Forest (RPI: 12, SOS: 27)

19- Texas A&M (16-6) (RPI: 19, SOS: 14)

20- Rhode Island (19-4) (RPI: 21, SOS: 54)

21- Maryland (15-6) (RPI: 39, SOS: 41)

Bubble-IN:

22- Oklahoma State (16-7) (RPI: 37, SOS: 40)

23- Richmond (19-6) (RPI: 26, SOS: 48)

24- Clemson (17-7) (RPI: 35, SOS: 31)

25- Florida State (17-7) (RPI: 39, SOS: 49)

26- Dayton (17-6) (RPI:32, SOS 33)

27- Marquette (15-8) (RPI: 66, SOS: 54)

28- Florida (17-7) (RPI: 52, SOS: 63)

29- Mississippi (17-7) (RPI: 45, SOS: 56)

30- Virginia Tech (19-4) (RPI: 54, SOS: 175)

31- Illinois (17-8) (RPI: 63, SOS: 70)

32- Old Dominion (19-7) (RPI: 36, SOS: 76)

33- St Mary's (21-4) (RPI: 43, SOS: 115)

34- Cincy (14-9) (RPI:55, SOS: 17)

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South Florida (15-8) (RPI: 50, SOS: 35)

Charlotte (18-6) (RPI: 42, SOS: 105)
Louisville (15-9) (RPI: 46, SOS: 6)
Minnesota (14-9) (RPI: 77, SOS: 52)
Mississippi St (17-7) (RPI:65, SOS: 110)
Notre Dame (17-8) (RPI: 67, SOS: 58)
Arizona state (17-8) (RPI: 74, SOS: 81)
UConn (14-10) (RPI: 51, SOS: 2)
Northwestern (16-8) (RPI: 78, SOS: 88)
Washington (16-8) (RPI: 58, SOS: 32)
Texas Tech (16-7) (RPI: 30, SOS: 21)
Northeastern (17-8) (RPI: 60, SOS: 75)**
San Diego State (15-7) (RPI: 44, SOS: 72)
Memphis (17-7) (RPI:71, SOS: 90)
south carolina: (14-9) (RPI: 64, SOS: 25)
Seton Hall (13-9) (RPI: 57 , SOS: 7)
UAB (19-4) (RPI:31, SOS: 92)

** - Had to include both Old Dom and Northeastern from the CAA since there isn't a clear favorite in that league for the auto-bid. However, Old Dominion would most likely be IN at this point, and Northeastern OUT if both were at-larges right now. But come conference tournament time, if Old Dominion was to lose against a bad team, they could be out.

Some teams to look at if they make a run:

Virginia

Arizona

VCU

George Mason

William & Mary

Red teams signify they are dropping in value. Green teams signify the opposite; their value is rising.

Note: Exact rankings are not completely correct yet. Ex: team A in slot 24 is not necessarily in a better bubble position than team B in slot 25. The accuracy to that nature will increase as we approach Selection Sunday. Teams that are "on the bubble" will be more accurately ranked. Teams that are currently "out" are also not perfectly ranked either.

I am happy to take criticism, arguments, and comments. I will respond to them as frequently and accurately as I can.

Note#2: These rankings are slightly different than my rankings @ PSUHoops (http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php?topic=750.45). From now on, the rankings will be identical.