The bubble is really starting to show some true "form". It continues to stay relatively weak in comparison with previous seasons. USF, Dayton and Ole Miss all dropped from IN to OUT. St Mary's, UConn and Florida took their places. Richmond and Oklahoma State played themselves into the "watch your back" region. Rhode Island and UNLV played themselves out of a relatively safe position. Rhode Island is squarely on the bubble, while UNLV is only slightly ahead of them.
Locks:
1- Nova
2- Texas
3- Gtown
4- Kansas State
5- WVU
6- Purdue
7- Tennessee
8- Wisconsin
9- Pitt
10- Vanderbilt
11- Georgia Tech
12- Ohio State
13- BYU
14- Baylor
Now we enter the "Watch your back region":
15- Missouri (20-7) (RPI: 39, SOS: 58)
16- Wake Forest (18-7) (RPI: 21, SOS: 25)
17- Texas A&M (18-7) (RPI: 12, SOS: 6)
18- Xavier (19-7) (RPI: 20, SOS: 13)
19- Oklahoma State (19-7) (RPI: 29, SOS: 40)
20- Richmond (22-6) (RPI: 26, SOS: 80)
Bubble-IN:
21- Maryland (18-7) (RPI: 36, SOS: 30)
22- UNLV (19-7) (RPI: 42, SOS:62)
23- Louisville (18-9) (RPI: 30, SOS: 7)
24- Illinois (17-10) (RPI: 68, SOS: 53)
25- Florida State (19-7) (RPI: 40, SOS: 56)
26- Virginia Tech (21-5) (RPI: 43, SOS: 142)
27- Marquette (17-9) (RPI: 59, SOS: 50)
28- UAB (21-5) (RPI:31, SOS: 94)
29- Rhode Island (20-6) (RPI: 25, SOS: 61)
30- Clemson (19-7) (RPI: 35, SOS: 35)
31- Florida (19-8) (RPI: 53, SOS: 57)
32- Old Dominion (21-8) (RPI: 41, SOS: 86)
33- St Mary's (22-5) (RPI: 46, SOS: 125)
34- UConn (16-11) (RPI: 45, SOS: 2)
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Dayton (18-8) (RPI:43, SOS 41)
Mississippi (17-9) (RPI: 63, SOS: 54)
South Florida (16-10) (RPI: 68, SOS: 43)
Cincinnati (15-11) (RPI:56, SOS: 16)
Washington (18-9) (RPI: 60, SOS: 49)
San Diego State (18-7) (RPI: 38, SOS: 71)
Mississippi St (19-8) (RPI:65, SOS: 115)
Charlotte (18-8) (RPI: 55, SOS: 98)
Seton Hall (15-10) (RPI: 52 , SOS: 11)
Arizona state (19-8) (RPI: 58, SOS: 74)
Memphis (20-7) (RPI:60, SOS:107)
William & Mary (18-8) (RPI: 48, SOS:87)
Minnesota (16-10) (RPI:77, SOS:53)
Dropped out:
Northwestern - Losing 3 out of their last 4 including losses to Iowa and PSU will do this to a bubble team.
Northeastern - Lost 2 out last 3, including 2 crucial games against W&M and LTech.
Notre Dame - Dropped 3 straight.
Texas Tech - Have lost 3 straight. Their RPI Top 50 record is 1-10. 3-10 vs Top 100. Somehow they still have a good RPI.
New team(s):
Minnesota - Tubby shortened his rotation and won by 16 against Wisky.
Teams to watch:
St Louis (17-8) (RPI: 82, SOS: 137)- With games against Xaiver, Temple and Dayton in their last 4, they can certainly make some bubble teams nervous if they win out.
Next update: Evening of 2/25
Tonight's games:
#7 WVU vs UConn (7PM ESPN) - UConn is squarely on the bubble. Another Top 10 win and this team would be hard to deny. Top 10 SOS, decent RPI, and 3 Top 10 wins?
Tomorrow's games:
#10 Georgetown vs Louisville (7PM ESPN2) - Louisville has really improved their chances after losing @SJU. A win against #10 Gtown would nearly put them at lock status.
Illinois vs Michigan (7PM ESPN) - Illinois can't lose this game.
Old Dominion vs Georgia State (7PM) - Ditto.
Rutgers vs Seton Hall (7PM ESPN360) - Must win game for the Hall. Its also a huge rivalry game.
#18 Tennessee vs Florida (9PM ESPN) - Florida is in a brutal stretch of their SEC schedule. They can pull out some big wins in it, or fold their NCAA hopes.
Hmm, no Michigan State? I thought they'd at least be a bubble team. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback.
ReplyDeleteI haven't updated the conference leaders since the first bubble situation post. MSU is one loss behind Purdue in the B10 race and tied with OSU. All 3 are locks, so it isn't really worth updating. I guess I should leave the conference leader auto-bids in each post.